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6PM SXMGOV UPDATE…HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA …
…A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN…
At 5:00 PM (2100 UTC), the center of tropical storm Grace was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 60.7 West or about 220 miles east southeast of St. Maarten. The system is moving quickly toward the west near 26 mph (43 km/h). A motion toward the west-
northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days.
The center of tropical storm Grace has been located further south at 5 pm as a result, on this current forecast track, the system is now expected to pass approximately 100 miles
south of St. Maarten early Sunday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
strengthening is expected during the next day or two.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 (55 km) miles to the north of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).
The Meteorological Department of St. Maarten will continue to monitor the progress of this system and keep the public updated accordingly.
LATEST ST MAARTEN TROPICAL STORM HURRICANE UPDATE CENTRAL: Tropical Storm Grace Forms En Route to the Lesser Antilles; South Florida in the Cone By weather.com meteorologists
At a Glance
Tropical Storm Grace will approach the northern Lesser Antilles tonight.
It will bring gusty winds and rain to many of the Caribbean islands.
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under a tropical storm warning.
Puerto Rico is now under a tropical storm warning as Tropical Storm Grace approaches the Caribbean.
The system could follow Fred’s path near the Greater Antilles into next week. Tropical storm warnings have been issued in the eastern Caribbean. Florida is in the cone of uncertainty.
Current Watches and Warnings
New this morning: tropical storm warnings have been hoisted for Puerto Rico (including Vieques and Culebra) and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and also for the British Virgin Islands.
Tropical storm warnings have been issued for Anguilla, St.Martin, and St. Barthelemy, Sint Maarten, Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat and Saba and Sint Eustatius.
Latest Information and Forecast
Grace will quickly move westward or west-northwestward at 15 to 25 mph through the weekend. That speed is expected to decrease early next week.
The system will near the Leeward Islands late Saturday and approach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday.
Current Status, Forecast Path
(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the system. It’s important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical system usually spread beyond its forecast path)
Gusty winds, rounds of rain and choppy seas are expected as the system passes through the islands into the Caribbean or parallels the northernmost islands of the Lesser Antilles in the Atlantic.
Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected there this weekend, which may lead to flash flooding.
There is some uncertainty on how strong this system could get over the next week and its path.
By early next week, interaction with Hispaniola and/or Cuba are expected to have at least some impact on Grace’s strength.
The “G” tropical storm has formed on average (1966-2009) around Sept. 16, but has formed significantly earlier than that in the last decade.
The peak of hurricane season is in the second week of September.
Will This System Follow Fred and Elsa?
If this track sounds familiar, it’s because the last two storms have taken similar tracks.
Hurricane Elsa in July and Fred, which is currently nearing Florida, have tracked through the northern Caribbean.
This track is a common one. Tropical waves frequently track westward through the “Main Development Region,” a stretch of the southern Atlantic between Africa and the Caribbean.
Both Elsa and Fred formed from tropical waves and made the voyage across the Atlantic as tropical waves.
Grace is forming the same way but may push westward on a slightly more northern track toward the Caribbean.
Tracks for Elsa and Fred (colored by category) and Ensemble Model Tracks for Grace (in yellow and white)
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
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